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Guy Tuttle and Ass
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I think the next primary season is going to be very interesting. It seems like after this giant split in the House GOP re: the shutdown, a lot of primary challengers for moderate republicans might pop up.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/10/the-conservative-war-on-the-gop/280637/

Typically I am pretty skeptical when people predict the rise of a third party in the US, because quirks of our electoral process predispose the US to a two-party system. But because of modern America's unusually gerrymandered political landscape, many far-right politicians are quite safe in their districts.

These deep red districts could end up seeing much more vigorous primary races than the actual election, as is sometimes the case in deep blue districts. If the GOP were to officially split the primary season would be less interesting, but the election might be a 3-way contest between a moderate democrat, a moderate republican, and a tea party-type, or even simply a 2-way contest between a republican candidate and a tea party candidate.

In this way these deep red districts might eventually become a type of stronghold for the tea party, which could insulate them from some of the pressures of Duverger's law. It might resemble Canada a little, where the Quebecois party is strong enough in its geographic area to compete against the two major parties, but weak in other parts of the country. The difference is that the Tea Party is spread out over a lot of disparate electorates across the central and southern US and not concentrated in any one area, but again, until the state governments redistrict again (2020), they are fairly well protected in their districts.

Anyway I didn't mean to write so much really, hopefully someone reads it

Guy Tuttle and Ass
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You can see here that in 2012, many of the republican districts were extremely safe with republicans often getting twice as many votes as democratic candidates.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/House/2012/

In 2014 the results will probably be even more skewed to the right.

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I read it. I hate political parties. I hope the Republican party falls to pieces and as a result people realize how manufactured "the two party system" is and that it's only inevitable if we're convinced it's inevitable. Then we can deconstruct the Democratic party too and live free and naked in the meadows.

balls

Muzta
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I will actually have to give you this one, I could certainly see the Tea part caucus becoming more independent

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Quoted from D_:
I hope ... people realize how manufactured "the two party system" is and that it's only inevitable if we're convinced it's inevitable.

That's incredibly naive. Our system of government will always tend toward two parties, even if it ever manages to temporarily disrupt the two party scenario.

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And that's bullshit. The death-grip of "two parties" is constantly evolving. Our system was not "designed" for two parties or any parties at all. The fact that it has tended toward two parties is an error that can be corrected if there weren't two parties constantly fighting to keep the status quo as it is.

I never tire of hearing how the FPTP voting system makes a multi-party system unsustainable. And yet missing from this very true point is that, while most people recognize this, and most people think that a multi-party field would be beneficial for any democracy, hardly anyone considers it to be changeable. If you're convinced nothing will ever change, it fucking won't change because you won't vote for it.

To me it's incredibly naive to say that something as stupid as a voting technique is impossible to change, when the world around us and in our past is saturated with more improbable and unanticipated shifts than that.

balls

Guy Tuttle and Ass
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Don't you think it's sort of naive to think that anyone in congress would legislate away their own job? Has that ever happened in history ever?

How would you, as a citizen, vote for such a change? How long would it take for you to get tired of your third-party candidate losing because the rest of the electorate is voting strategically?

But anyway the purpose of this thread was not to discuss the merits of Duverger's Law.

I guess real test would be to see if a small number of Tea Party representatives could actually manage to do something. One or two states might manage to elect Tea Party governors, and they'd probably play a big role in some state senates.

One interesting secondary effect this could have would be to force the Democrats and Republicans to finally address gerrymandering in a meaningful, national way.

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The legislative process is broken when an extremist minority faction of a minority party can hold the entire legislature hostage for several weeks.

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How would I change it? I can't. How would everyone change it, if the prevailing attitude wasn't "this problem is insurmountable" ? Easily.

The Democratic and Republican parties are constantly fighting to tighten ballot access laws and restrict participation from third parties. If they were as entrenched and secure in their position as they act, none of that would be necessary.

Legislators would never legislate their path to power without sufficient pressure. They are not going to pass campaign finance reform on their own initiative because they got elected because they are good at raising money. They won't vote for term limits or ballot access or structural voting changes either, not on their own initiative. If there was ever enough pressure that made voting no on any of these things more threatening to their job than voting status quo, then these things will get passed. To my mind, these are some of the most important issues our country has and the ones most worth fighting for, considering the ineptness of congress which is almost universally recognized. When I talk about this people usually agree that these things are very broken, because it is immediately obvious to virtually everyone (hello, 9% congressional approval rating). Yet few people want to fight for it because it's a fight that they are convinced is already lost. So what then, continue strategically voting ourselves into oblivion because "that's just the way the system works" ?

balls

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I think we are presently entrenched in an ideological battle that makes no real sense but I think that's intentional. There is a very small segment of this population (possibly somewhere around 1% not sure) with unreasonable access to speech and as such get to set the tone of our stupid slap fights while they continue to amass more and more... uh... speech behind the scenes.

I swear to god I get a knot in my stomach every time a new Chase branch opens up around here (they're sprouting up like evil Starbucks' in my neck of the woods).

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Quoted from Motherfuckin SPACE BEAR:
I think we are presently entrenched in an ideological battle that makes no real sense but I think that's intentional. There is a very small segment of this population (possibly somewhere around 1% not sure) with unreasonable access to speech and as such get to set the tone of our stupid slap fights while they continue to amass more and more... uh... speech behind the scenes.

Somewhat relevant story today.

balls

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Well shit. Not that that's news but it's really pretty disheartening when it's thrown in your face like that.

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Well yeah, the specific study they are reporting on is the news, but the fact that it happens a lot is no surprise.

balls

Guy Tuttle and Ass
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Let's hypothesize a tea party split that forces the moderate republicans to caucus with the democratic senators to pass bills / not shut down the government. What concessions does the left make to get them on board? Ironically, in this scenario, the tea party might actually make Obama's Bipartisan HopeDream come true, with a big majority of Congress coming together to craft moderate, centrist policy.

How does that affect the more liberal democrats? They are also pretty safe:

Here, "landslide" means more than 20% more conservative/liberal than the US as a whole. from here

Unfortunately I can't really see a situation in which the liberal democrats and the tea party would manage to put aside their differences and constructively propose/oppose legislation. This is where the Tea Party's inexperience (or ineptitude or intellectual dishonesty) really outs it as not being a serious movement.

Guy Tuttle and Ass
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I guess that medical devices tax would get tossed pretty quickly, they're dying to give that one away anyway

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The good thing about the Bloc Quebecois isn't that it's a third party, but that it allows other third parties to exist. If they take a big enough chunk of the federal election, it allows both the Liberals and the NDP to be viable options. Things were better before the 2000s when there were two parties on the right and on the left (plus the Bloc) but since the Conservative merger it seems more like the path to the two party system.

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I'm waiting for the GOP to make it's exit but I've been waiting for like four years and it hasn't happened yet. Ice, wtf?

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What would that even mean? If we are assuming that a third party is obviously ridiculous, you've got probably like 45% of the population who would never vote for the Democratic party. Where do all those votes go?

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Guy Tuttle and Ass
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I'm telling you what could happen is that the GOP could splinter. I think if that happened a lot of moderate democrats and republicans could move together into something more centrist. Democrats would be left with a something a bit more left and the tea party would be out there on the right, protected for the time being with gerrymandered districts.

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Quoted from D_:
What would that even mean? If we are assuming that a third party is obviously ridiculous, you've got probably like 45% of the population who would never vote for the Democratic party. Where do all those votes go?

Elections are won by the center. This whole shitstorm is what happened when the republican party decided it would be a good strategy to bypass that and work on simply getting their base to the polls in higher numbers. I also think that 45% of the population isn't tea party. I have to assume there are rational conservatives in the US somewhere. Who will those people vote for when the tea party candidates oust the tried and true republican candidates in their primaries? I assume they simply don't show up to the polls. In that case, the democrats will win because the tea party is already forcefully pushing the center towards the democrats as fast as they can for not being ideologically pure enough.

So basically, the thought is that the democrats simply win. And keep winning. Until the republicans change. To be honest, I do see it happening already since the shutdown. The middle is no longer content to sit around and see what these new republicans are going to do. They've seen the crazy face to face.

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Things are not looking so good for the tea party or the Republican party in Virginia right now.

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Virginia's gone blue as has NYC. Now if only that radical left could rear its head a little more, then we'd have a good time!

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Oops

balls

Guy Tuttle and Ass
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midterms bro. it's all demographics here

Guy Tuttle and Ass
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Midterm voters are older and whiter

heres a chart

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