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Muzta
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(Originally posted on: 09-23-09 04:15:15 PM)
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Global warming is literally all over the fucking news

Frankly, I don't know who to trust (actually I don't trust anyone). I've decided to bring the question to INTL, to see what the forum thinks. So, what's your view point on Global Climate change? Impending doom? Overreaction from dick wad environmentalists? A serious issue that requires serious thought to reach a serious conclusion and what is the best solution?

Let's hear it

P.S. I just got spontaneously lazy so I'm going to post my own opinion in like 15 minutes

*edit*
Muzta's Position
Fossil Fuel stimulated Global Climate Change

So what do we know?
1. Global Temperature is Rising since the beginning of the industrial revolution
2. Global CO2 levels having been rising in the same time period
3. CO2 is a green house gas

What can we infer reasonably soundly? Perhaps not as much as people would have us a believe.

For starters, is the burning of fossil fuels the principal culprit of the spike in green house gas emissions? The industrial revolution brought about more then just a dramatic increase in the use of fossil fuels, it also brought about slash and burn agriculture which liberates tremendous amounts of CO2, and actually reduces it's entrapment rates (how much is debatable). Strip mining caused enormous amounts of hazardous material to be dumped into the ocean, significant because the primary mechanism responsible for CO2 entrapment is phytoplankton, has their been a general decrease in the productivity of our ocean's over the last 100 years? Maybe, who knows!

Is any of that significant? Absolutely, if only because their is absolutely no way what so ever to fix a problem you have nailed down the cause of.

Finally? Is their a problem? Has mankind altered the global climate by the introduction of CO2?

Fuck if I know, for starters we know the world is hotter, but we don't actually know for certain that's a direct results of CO2 emission, we can assume, but it's still only a correlation with an implied causation. what other events govern our temperature? Solar activity? volcanic activity? Intrinsic cyclical activity?

The Global Climate is the single most complicated system in the world, and humanity has been watching it accurately for about 50 years, all the more humiliating, we've only been watching a fraction of the globe it's self. Can we say for certain, or even with reasonable confidence that this is a dramatic, unnatural change? An environmentalist would say yes, a statistician would say no.

I say we abandon the debate all together, science isn't about debates, science is about facts.

And I really don't feel we have enough

-Muzta
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This reply was last edited on 09-23-09 04:52:32 PM by Muzta.
Ztolk
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Reply 1 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 04:37:39 PM)
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The overall planet does appear to getter warmer, but not the extent or with the effects that Al Gore warned us about. In fact, it's been getting warmer since the last ice age, and also from a mini-ice age in the medieval period. I recommend a book called The Deniers by Lawrence Solomon (loljew) about the science that disagrees with Al Gore.

That being said, there are plenty of other valid reasons to reduce polution and be nicer to the planet.
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Reply 2 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 05:44:19 PM)
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I'll believe in global warming when weathermen can accurately predict the weather 2 days out, much less 100 years out.
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Reply 3 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 05:52:49 PM)
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You don't think it's easier to observe broad trends than minute details? I'm trying to comprehend your thought process here
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Reply 4 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 05:53:23 PM)
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Global warming is pretty much impossible to predict.

However, looking at weather patterns and changing climates I am inclined to think that something is happening.

Quoted from Ztolk:
That being said, there are plenty of other valid reasons to reduce polution and be nicer to the planet.


I agree. Do the oil companies want you to be nice to the planet though? There is no money in going green, only expenses that people don't seem to be willing to make.
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Muzta
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Reply 5 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 06:01:54 PM)
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I suspect many years from now psychology students will study us as evidence of how easy it is to convince large groups of people of information.

I mean let's look at the Environmentalist Pyramid

1. Environmentalist Activists (99.9%) - Literally don't have any pertinent expertise, they are little more then lay people inflamed by the papers written by group 2 (more on them later). Al Gore, Barak Obama ect.....

2 Environmental Scholars (.1%) - These are people who actually study environmental tendencies and effects. Marine Biologists, meteorologists climatologists ect.. They actually have their finger on the Pulse of the climate, they have access to raw data and have seen trends emerging contrary to their own (almost always wrong) models. These people have become new age profits attempting to predict the reaction of the most complicated system in the world to unknown, unprecedented, and unproven stimulus.

3. People that Have their Shit together (0%) - Actually Study the subtle nuances of environmental effects, a master of chemistry and particle interactions, capable of demonstrating the exact nature of human modification of our environment. In addition these hypothetical people will also understand the nature of our society, energy grid, heat engines ect.. and be able to propose ACTUAL solutions to the problems they see

(instead of, MORE WIND)
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Reply 6 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 06:46:37 PM)
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At a general level it isn't really accurate to say climate models are wrong. They may not be accurate in details but they do have stability. They take basic laws of conservation as the starting principles (energy, momentum, angular momentum etc) and run through such things as the Naiver-Stokes equations for fluid flows.

The real tough part is due to the numerous feedback cycles present. It seems a classic example of such a thing is the albedo from ice process. When ice/snow melts away it exposes soil which is capable of absorbing more heat and warming the air around it which leads to more melting and so forth.

The other thing to note, besides the fact that with the advent of very massive supercomputers we have been able to incorporate more into models is that climate models are tested against empirical data. They are first given input data for some time period in the past and then run forward to see how well they do with matching up with past data that we know, to see how well the model stands up. Obviously if it fails to reproduce the actual climate then there should be no faith put in said model and it is worked on until it gets better or abandoned for a different approach.

Remember this is climate here, not localized weather. On a global scale it is far easier to watch and quantify trends. In some sense, and perhaps it is an incorrect analogy, climate is like predicting where water will flow in a river...weather is like predicting where a certain set of water molecules will be at some future time. For short times it can be done fairly well but afterward it gets mighty hard.


As for your criteria that we demonstrate exact impacts of our actions on nature, I don't think that would ever be possible. Nothing is really exact ever, and it can't be without infinite precision. However it is possible to demonstrate the differences between outcomes in models that have confidence when taking only natural effects into consideration and then ones that take effects we may or may not be causing into consideration as well and then seeing how these fit with observed trends as was done in http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/ar4-wg1/jpg/faq-9-2-fig-1.jpg

The whole climate change thing though has gotten so mixed up with politics who knows what is going to ultimately come of it. Any serious change to the climate could be devastating though and does deserve serious study, but whether anything will actually come from it remains up to society and politicians.
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Reply 7 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 07:18:33 PM)
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A few other tidbits:
The widespread burning of fossil fuels started around the same time as weather record keeping, and there hasn't really been a time when we HAVEN'T seen the temperature going up.

Something like 99% of temperature records are made on land, 70% of the planet is ocean.
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Muzta
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Reply 8 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 08:55:15 PM)
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But then let's look at those models, for instance I would say that the one you posted is fairly poor. For instance, it completely fails to account for the temperature spike in 1940's, and then all together fails to account for the temperature drop in the 1950's

Furthermore, their merely attempting to retro fit a model. Which their are able to do accurately, but only for about 50 years.

What I'm saying is that our global climate is an incredibly intricate and power control system, it has to be. We have such a poor understanding of the mechanism's that drive that system that I think it's just inaccurate to say that we can model any long term climate change effectively.
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Reply 9 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 09:34:21 PM)
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I've been calling bullshit on the day after tomorrow theories since it became a huge deal in the media. Granted, a lot of scientists jumped on board; however, many of them have recently stated that it might not be as bad as we think.

"Another favourite climate nostrum was upturned when Pope warned that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural cycles rather than global warming. Preliminary reports suggest there has been much less melting this year than in 2007 or 2008.

In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however. "Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts," said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK.

The world may badly want reliable forecasts of future climate. But such predictions are proving as elusive as the perfect weather forecast."

Source: Newscientist
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Reply 10 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-23-09 11:49:06 PM)
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Preface: I'm drunk and don't care to be typing a lot.

Link: http://www.marshall.org/experts.php?id=44

The Gist: There is evidence that suggests that the amount of energy that the sun puts out varies over hundreds of years and that this variance effects the temperatures on Earth. We've only been keeping accurate track of global temps for a few hundred years. Strong possibility that since we've been tracking temps Earth has just been under a normal warm spell from the sun.
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Reply 11 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 06:05:12 AM)
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Right now, despite a very few claims otherwise it generally seems that while solar variations do exist they fail to account for effects we observe by some orders of magnitude. For instance, an increase in solar output should warm the stratosphere, however it has mostly remained at a steady or decreasing temperature.

It would be good though to pin down just what influence solar forcing has on the climate. The Deep Space Climate Observatory is one such satellite that could answer numerous questions about solar impact on our atmosphere as well as providing continual measurements of the albedo. The satellite was pretty much completed and during the Bush years it seemed to be shelved for some reason (a FOIA request was denied by the Office of Science and Technology). Regardless, the satellite has recently been taken out of storage and is being fixed up so it can be launched either via a Delta rocket or some other type. If (and hopefully when) it launches and starts its mission, it will help answer a lot of questions.
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Reply 12 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 09:06:17 AM)
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So how long until I live underwater?
It is company policy not to release this information.
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Reply 13 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 09:34:36 AM)
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Business interests have done a great job of framing this debate so that all of you skeptics feel like you're fighting against the uninformed masses.
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Reply 14 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 10:01:15 AM)
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Quoted from take it sleazy:
Business interests have done a great job of framing this debate so that all of you skeptics feel like you're fighting against the uninformed masses.
yeah this sort of shit makes me sick.
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Reply 15 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 10:14:28 AM)
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The problem with this is that there is no accountability for the people making these accusations. If the real problem with global warming is supposed to occur 100 years from now, so what if they're right or wrong? They don't feel the effects of it either way. It's a lame attempt to pass legislation that benefits them now by attempting to foster sympathy for "future generations". There's no recourse for the current fear-mongers, so there's no risk involved. We don't understand weather and its causes well enough to make accurate predictions on a small scale, much less broad sweeping generalizations about the global climate. Go ahead and tell me what next year's global weather will be like!
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Reply 16 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 10:17:12 AM)
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OK! All observations indicate that the global mean temperature will be a few tenths of a degree hotter than this year!

Quote:
The problem with this is that there is no accountability for the people making these accusations.


how about the accountability for the people who are dumping literally millions of cubic miles of trash into the atmosphere? You don't care about them?

Also how does global warming legislation benefit specific actors (unless of course you're referring to Big Solar and the all powerful Wind Lobby)?
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Reply 17 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 11:55:10 AM)
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Since the development of catalytic converts and the outlawing of cfcs, we're actually dumping considerably less noxious shit in the atmosphere now than we were 50 years ago. Perhaps you should go hug a tree in India or China, where the problem is actually a problem.
Muzta
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Reply 18 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 12:24:26 PM)
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Quoted from take it sleazy:


Also how does global warming legislation benefit specific actors (unless of course you're referring to Big Solar and the all powerful Wind Lobby)?


The irony is that you don't realize that those institutions exist
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Reply 19 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 12:33:12 PM)
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Just because there are other countries supplying more pollution to the atmosphere does not mean that we should not continue to make efforts to minimize our own contributions to pollution by developing better and cleaner energy technologies. I think we can all agree that cleaner air is desirable, global warming or not. Using the claim that there exists an evil greater than us in that regard is nothing more than a rationalization of the status quo.
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Reply 20 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 02:04:05 PM)
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Quote:
Since the development of catalytic converts and the outlawing of cfcs, we're actually dumping considerably less noxious shit in the atmosphere now than we were 50 years ago. Perhaps you should go hug a tree in India or China, where the problem is actually a problem.


cfcs has nothing to do with global warming brah

Quote:
The irony is that you don't realize that those institutions exist


Are you actually trying to say that solar power lobbyists have influence on government comparable to that of the oil, coal, and auto industries? Really?
Muzta
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Reply 21 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 02:19:37 PM)
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Quoted from take it sleazy:


Are you actually trying to say that solar power lobbyists have influence on government comparable to that of the oil, coal, and auto industries? Really?


Yes I would say that there is some serious lobby going on by the alternate energy brigade
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Reply 22 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 02:45:04 PM)
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Quoted from Muzta:
Quoted from take it sleazy:


Are you actually trying to say that solar power lobbyists have influence on government comparable to that of the oil, coal, and auto industries? Really?


Yes I would say that there is some serious lobby going on by the alternate energy brigade


Oil Execs seriously jizz in their pants thinking about people like you
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Reply 23 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 03:10:49 PM)
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Oil companies are the only people who have a financial interest in the outcome of the global warming debate, and are therefore evil!!!
Muzta
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Reply 24 of 47 (Originally posted on: 09-24-09 03:12:33 PM)
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Quoted from take it sleazy:
Quoted from Muzta:
Quoted from take it sleazy:


Are you actually trying to say that solar power lobbyists have influence on government comparable to that of the oil, coal, and auto industries? Really?


Yes I would say that there is some serious lobby going on by the alternate energy brigade


Oil Execs seriously jizz in their pants thinking about people like you


Do you think Big Oil opposes alternate energy?

Not a fucking drop of oil is spent generating electricity in the united states. It's too fucking expensive
You want to explain to me as to why Big Oil gives a shit about alternate energy?
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