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sprUceWOLF
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(Originally posted on: 10-15-05 12:31:04 PM)
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You have all heard about the threat of a worldwide pandemic of the H5N1 or Avian (bird) flu virus that originated in Asia.

At this time, there have been 60+ fatalities with 116 human cases reported, or 52% fatality rate. The fatality rate is expected to decline further, but even so, estimates of the potential worldwide death toll if human-to-human transmission erupts range from 3.4 million to 1.69 billion ... a "reasonable" estimate might be in the 150-300 million range.

Meanwhile, at least one nation (Indonesia or Thailand, can't find the reference) is refusing to cull poultry because of cost, governments around the world are urging calm, and doing the right thing (such as vaccinating in a ring around outbreaks or supplying antivirals like Tamiflu) may not be politically expedient ... imagine the outcry if GW Bush sent US vaccine supplies abroad, and manufacturers are unlikely to be able to develop and produce sufficient quantities of vaccines in time.

Questions--
What should world leaders be doing about this?
What are you doing to protect your own health or enhance your own immune system?
What will the impact of the pandemic be to our economies and way of life?
Is the threat real or overblown?
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Reply 1 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 01:20:10 PM)
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I belong to the first world, I am young, healthy, and live in a country with a top-notch public healthcare system (despite its many critics).

So I'm not really worried. Besides, I think comparisons with the Spanish flu of 1918 are inappropriated. Europe had just been ravaged by WWI and was in short supply of nearly everything. Now we already have vast stocks of vaccines and are in no shortage of basic goods.

It's overblown IMHO. Like SARS. As far as the West is concerned, obviously - it's going to be much worse in poor Asia.

Anyways, it's in Romania and Turkey now, so it's only a matter of time before it shows up over here.
Some were communist because with this force in their hearts, they were more than their mere self: it was like being two people in one. On one side your personal daily toil, on the other the sense of belonging to a race that wanted to take off and fly, to really change life.
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Reply 2 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 04:09:13 PM)
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Quoted from HK:
I belong to the first world, I am young, healthy, and live in a country with a top-notch public healthcare system (despite its many critics).
learn u some stuff ok?? In the 1918 pandemic, the young and healthy were the first to die, because H1N1 turned your antibodies on eachother or something.
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Reply 3 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 04:24:27 PM)
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Quote:
So I'm not really worried. Besides, I think comparisons with the Spanish flu of 1918 are inappropriated. Europe had just been ravaged by WWI and was in short supply of nearly everything. Now we already have vast stocks of vaccines and are in no shortage of basic goods.

We don't have any vaccines, because what they're worried about isn't the current bird flu, it's the new virus it could become through mutation that would be able to spread easily between humans.

And you can't create a vaccine for a virus that doesn't exist yet.
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Reply 4 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 05:35:36 PM)
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There seem to be a fuss about some huge ecademic that going to happen any time now every few years, but nothing ever comes of it. So I'm not going to worry about it.
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Reply 5 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 05:58:24 PM)
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Quoted from HK:
I belong to the first world, I am young, healthy, and live in a country with a top-notch public healthcare system (despite its many critics).

So I'm not really worried. ...

It's overblown IMHO. Like SARS. As far as the West is concerned, obviously - it's going to be much worse in poor Asia.


That seems a bit cavalier. In the original post, I was alluding to this very idea: developed nations may not feel vulnerable and/or only try to protect their own ... which looks like self-interest, but really isn't, since the wisest course (IMHO) is to use worldwide resources to contain this pandemic across the planet.

As HK admits, H5N1 is not going to respect national boundaries ...
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Reply 6 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 06:04:21 PM)
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I wouldnt worry about it unless governments begin getting new laws passed that allow them to better control populations of humans and our commerce for the sake of our 'health'. I'm not so much afraid of death from the flu as government approved simulacra of 'life'. It'll be very interesting if Captain Trips heads out way.

Take your corporate-plutocratic Panopticon wet dream and shove it.
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Reply 7 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 08:04:18 PM)
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Quote:
In the 1918 pandemic, the young and healthy were the first to die, because H1N1 turned your antibodies on eachother or something.

That can't be. Most of the young and healthy were lying scattered accross the European battlefields.
Some were communist because with this force in their hearts, they were more than their mere self: it was like being two people in one. On one side your personal daily toil, on the other the sense of belonging to a race that wanted to take off and fly, to really change life.
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Reply 8 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 08:08:31 PM)
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/09/AR2005100900932.html
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8103
Article about using the actual 1918 flu virus to study H5N1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Flu
"Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself. The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool."
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sprUceWOLF
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Reply 9 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 08:27:13 PM)
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Quoted from antpocas:
Quote:
In the 1918 pandemic, the young and healthy were the first to die, because H1N1 turned your antibodies on each other or something.


Quoted from HK:
Quote:
That can't be. Most of the young and healthy were lying scattered accross the European battlefields.



I've read alot about the 1918 pandemic and never ran across any reference about young & healthy being first to die ... if you remember the source of that info, would you please forward to me or post it here?
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Reply 10 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 08:27:41 PM)
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I'm living the cold, and have been for several weeks now.

I know the flu will come - even with vaccines - I also feel as though I know a flu epidemic will come; yet, I suppose, I don't think of it daily, nor weekly, or even monthly. No use being paranoid when you're not involved in the creation of new vaccines, and there are other things preoccupying your time.

What will I do about the flu?
I'll get a vaccine, if it is available. And if it came here, I'd lessen my daily interactions with others until it passes.
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Reply 11 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-15-05 08:32:26 PM)
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Quote:
I've read alot about the 1918 pandemic and never ran across any reference about young & healthy being first to die ... if you remember the source of that info, would you please forward to me or post it here?

It killed a lot of soldiers (killed more American soldiers than the war), and soldiers tend to be young and fit (untill they get shot).

Obviously living ammassed in a trench, with a total lack of hygiene and a deprivation of basic necessities will make you more vulnerable to an epidemic.
Some were communist because with this force in their hearts, they were more than their mere self: it was like being two people in one. On one side your personal daily toil, on the other the sense of belonging to a race that wanted to take off and fly, to really change life.
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Reply 12 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 12:25:59 PM)
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I think its much to do about nothing. Just like sars I don't see a big pandemic I see a few people dying from the flu. Millions die from malaria, flu, TB etc every year. Of course there is gonna be out breaks of virluent diseases. All you can do is get a shot, wash your hands and avoid people who are sick.
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Reply 13 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 02:05:41 PM)
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Quoted from Mr Excitable:
I think its much to do about nothing. Just like sars I don't see a big pandemic I see a few people dying from the flu. Millions die from malaria, flu, TB etc every year. Of course there is gonna be out breaks of virluent diseases. All you can do is get a shot, wash your hands and avoid people who are sick.
Wait, common sense? Why would people begin to wash their hands and avoid sick people when it's so much easier to quarantine the rest of the world, and bring back isolationism.
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Reply 14 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 02:18:26 PM)
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I would worry if I were 80 years old and were planning on licking any door handles.
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Reply 15 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 03:47:22 PM)
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Quoted from Jose Rizal:
I would worry if I were 80 years old and were planning on licking any door handles.
Infected birds pass on the virus through their saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Migratory birds are vectors for this virus, so you should be glad you live in the West and not in a shithole like Vietnam.
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Reply 16 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 04:07:19 PM)
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I'll start worrying when people start dying in California.

I read something in the paper today about how scientists had recreated the 1918 virus, so hopefully that will help beat this new one.
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Reply 17 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 05:46:09 PM)
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Quote:
I think its much to do about nothing.

Ado?
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Reply 18 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 06:56:35 PM)
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Quoted from antpocas:
Quoted from Jose Rizal:
I would worry if I were 80 years old and were planning on licking any door handles.
Infected birds pass on the virus through their saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Migratory birds are vectors for this virus, so you should be glad you live in the West and not in a shithole like Vietnam.


Stock in chicken porn is going to dramatically bottom out. CASH YOUR CHIPS BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!

Take your corporate-plutocratic Panopticon wet dream and shove it.
sprUceWOLF
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Reply 19 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-16-05 08:24:56 PM)
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Possibly two cases in Vietnam came from ingesting Duck Blood Soup, a local delicacy (one case for sure, the other they are not sure if it came from the soup or the first person infected).

So you might want to add blood to that list ...

Quoted from antpocas:
Infected birds pass on the virus through their saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Migratory birds are vectors for this virus, so you should be glad you live in the West and not in a shithole like Vietnam.
mmac
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Reply 20 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-17-05 06:27:37 AM)
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Damn, I was really looking forward to a big bowl of duck blood soup after work. MAGUSMAGUSMAGUSMAGUS
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Reply 21 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-17-05 08:14:17 AM)
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I am not sure why people are getting upset over this. I am more than positive H5N1 was already in British Columbia this past year. They had a big cull of chickens and ducks, id look up the article but I havent slept yet.
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Reply 22 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-17-05 08:20:34 AM)
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Quoted from Marcher:
I'll start worrying when people start dying in California.

I read something in the paper today about how scientists had recreated the 1918 virus, so hopefully that will help beat this new one.


The 1918 virus was vicious in comparison to H5N1. They've been studying the 1918 flu for quite some time now as it is, and they've figured out that H5N1 is far more passive than the 1918 virus. It's like comparing wee-man (of Jackass) and Paul Bunyan (of folky lit fame), both can do some damage, but who's got a big blue ox on their side to trample the masses?

Paul Bunyan, spanish flu man does.



I really don't know where I was going with that analogy. I've been overseas too long, so if it makes no sense, ignore me.
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Reply 23 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-17-05 11:09:27 AM)
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Quoted from sprUceWOLF:

So you might want to add blood to that list ...
that one's kind of obvious
sprUceWOLF
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Reply 24 of 52 (Originally posted on: 10-17-05 05:32:22 PM)
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gee, i don't know ... i've had the flu many times, but never once from blood ... just being sneezed on, shaking hands, shit like that
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